There has been a lot of talk recently about possible Democratic cooperation with Trump. There is of course little basis to that yet, but it is interesting how quickly we’ve gone from hoping the Republican Party would save us from Trump to the other way around! With that as motivation it is worth thinking a little more about the players and issues in this game.
First about the choice of evils:
On one hand we have the Republican Party:
– This has become largely a Koch brothers organization. Low taxes for the very rich is the only real objective.
– Opposed to all social programs (no accident they couldn’t do healthcare).
– Pro-business, but perhaps not completely nuts on economic issues.
– Can find individuals to work with.
On the other hand we have Trump, with two sometimes contradictory impulses:
- Sees everything as though he were still managing his own businesses
– Cut taxes on businesses and rich people
– No interest in unemployed people or other “losers”
– All regulations are bad; anything of value happens in the private sector
- Sold himself as a “populist” and wants to believe he is delivering on it
– Primary focus is jobs via tax cuts and tariffs. Not much has actually happened.
– Support for coal miners, abandonment of Paris Agreement, killing DACA
– Not much else yet; AHCA would not have been a winner
The business side of Trump is only subtly different from the Koch brothers agenda, and separating Trump’s two sides is tricky. His speech on exiting the Paris Agreements was all about the populist side, but everything behind it was driven by Koch brothers people (Pruitt, Pence). Similarly, AHCA was nominally populist, but really an excuse to cut taxes for rich people.
Thus far Trump hasn’t done much for the populist side, but he keeps talking about it. That’s actually what has thus far stopped healthcare. Republicans spent six years repealing ACA with no worries about who would lose coverage–but that became an obvious issue now. Even though Trump supports AHCA, it’s not so easy for Congress just to laugh off the coverage.
Ideally that is an opening to find Democratic proposals of obvious benefit to Trump’s core constituency that are somehow salable to Trump. We have to accept these will only get mileage if they are presented as Trump’s initiatives. If it all fails, that will at least point out the hypocrisy of the populism.
There are some obvious possibilities:
Anything here is conditional on Republicans really giving up on the AHCA nightmare. If that happens Trump will need something. That could conceivably be whatever comes out of the bipartisan work on ACA, but Trump may want something really different to put his name on.
It should be pointed that this is not just an issue for the Trump core. Business needs it too, even more than the tax cut if you if you believe Warren Buffett. A good solution here could incorporate elements of a single payer system into a public option based on Medicare. For that it is important to realize that the existing Medicare infrastructure is actually administrated by the private sector.
This is a low probability, but you never know–he might bite if it really does save money for business.
Trump has said he wants to do this, but a pure private sector approach won’t work for poor areas. Appalachia is not going to benefit without some kind of compromise approach.
- Transitional job assistance (retraining and support)
Thus far Trump has put all his eggs in the “growth = jobs” basket. His target budget killed any assistance programs, including a successful one in Appalachia. However, it is now clear things are going to take longer than he expected. If this is viewed as transitional, we may actually be able to help people.
- Early childhood education; cost of college
All polls I’ve seen of Trump’s base say that they want something better for their children. Paul Ryan Republicans have been disastrous for such programs. These would be clear benefits for the working class.
- Tax reform
Trump likes to talk about reducing the current 35% corporate income tax. However, the average effective rate is more like 24 %, in large part because of special provisions delivered by lobbyists for particular corporations. A lot of Trump support is from small businesses who aren’t so lucky. A fair system may not appeal to Paul Ryan, but there is more reason for it to appeal to Trump. No one is supporting 15%, but 25% with real tax reform would not break the bank and would recall an achievement under Reagan.
- Promoting American jobs
Trump has made high tariffs the miracle solution to all problems for everyone. That’s not true, but it doesn’t mean there is nothing sensible to do. Trump probably doesn’t know anything else. We may be able to help. This is not the Republicans’ area of expertise.
- Climate Change
This is so crazy it’s hard to give up, even if it means fighting the Koch brothers directly. There’s both a carrot and a stick involved here, with recent developments for both:
– Harvey is the most recent example of what worsening weather can mean. As noted in the previous post, no reasonable business faced with such a large potential risk would choose just to ignore it.
– The reality of climate change will create enormous business opportunities—wholesale migration to electric cars is just one. With current policies we could very well cede all that to the Chinese. This would not be the only time that a first mover like Tesla would lose out in the end.
In all these areas, in contrast to the Republican healthcare fiasco, Democrats should be able to offer real proposals. So you never know….