Message for Business

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We’ve spoken here before about how the evangelical community needs to understand that Trump is not their guy.

However the issue is more general.  It’s too easy to dismiss evangelicals as disconnected from reality and perhaps swayed by self-interested leaders. In fact all of us have spent lifetimes insulated from the reality of authoritarian government.  The US elections and democratic system are certainly not perfect, but we the people still do have power.  It’s hard to recognize that once that goes, the world is different.

Even the well-heeled and well-educated business community has that problem.  Much was made of Jamie Dimon’s comment at Davos that Europeans in particular should stop worrying about Trump, because ultimately nothing serious was going to happen.  A recent Edsall piece pointed out that many other business leaders believe the same thing.  Like the Evangelical’s focus on abortion, the business focus on the Trump tax cuts has convinced business people that he’s their guy.

As Edsall’s article points out, the history of authoritarian takeovers tells another story.  Once government is unaccountable, what follows is massive corruption and shakedowns of all players.  That’s in addition to the whims and the uncorrectable mistakes of the leader.  Businesses–and in particular their leaders–have much to lose, as their counterparts elsewhere have found out to their shock and surprise.

For now Trump’s threats–combined with the taxcut carrot–seem to hold sway with much of the business community.   But the Trump people have made no secret of their plan to end democracy in favor of an  Viktor Orban-like regime.  As a threat, there is nothing in Biden’s program that comes close to matching that one.

Message for Evangelical Voters

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Everyone seems to have written off the evangelicals as a lost cause. We hear from many directions that they regard Trump as chosen by God to lead the country from infamy to some kind of evangelical paradise. That’s despite a personal history that is anything but Godly.

However personal history is not the issue. The message to the evangelicals has got to be something much more to the point. Despite the rhetoric, the fact is Trump is NOT THEIR GUY. He’s a con man doing what he’s has always done: make money off people who have the misfortune to trust him. He and his hacks are the ones saying he’s chosen by God. He has grabbed hold of an issue that means nothing to him, so that he can pick their pockets and run the country for himself and his ilk.

He has delivered on abortion. No money in that. What is money is tax breaks to big business donors and Trump himself. He did that last time, and he has said he is going to do it again. Already last time the massive tax cuts in good times went mostly to Wall Street and left the country with a record increase in debt. Further custs would be felt in medical care costs, education costs, the environment, and Social Security. There won’t be any “winning for his people”.

He has also said that he is opposed to democracy and is going to rule accordingly. That does NOT mean he is going to run the country for you. It means that he is going to run the country for HIM, and there won’t be a single thing you can do about it. This will not be the idealized American past of peace, friendship, and family values. It will be an unChristian paradise where anything goes for the rich and powerful, with nothing for the well-being of anyone else. Unafordable healthcare, no labor or environmental protections, no future for anyone’s children outside the rich. In all his bankruptcies Trump sucked out money and screwed the contractors and vendors who trusted him.

Biden is not threatening your practice of religion or anything else about how you live. And he regards himself as President responsible for the whole country, including you. You may find that much of what he has proposed is relevant to you. There is also no threat to your continued voice in the running of the country.

Trump is NOT the unGodly warrior for Christ. God is only his foot in the door. After that there’s the lesson repeated over and over in history: enemies of democracy are no one’s friend.

Genocide is the Wrong Question

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It seems to me that the discussion of genocide yes or no in Gaza is actually letting Israel off the hook.

It’s easy to defend a charge of genocide. It’s true that the war with Hamas is still going on. It’s true that Hamas’ network of tunnels is such that it is impossible to imagine military action that doesn’t involve large numbers of civilian casualties. It’s even true that the Israelis are more or less losing the war, because they haven’t significantly reduced Hamas ability to launch another October 7 attack, and they haven’t even made much headway on those tunnels. So it’s not genocide, it’s an ongoing war of self-defense.

But that’s not actually what’s going on. When Netanyahu launched the war he certainly knew there was no chance of completely eliminating Hamas. He may have believed he could do it anyway; he may have just decided it was a good slogan. But early in the war it must have been clear to everyone that it wasn’t going to happen. For Netanyahu himself the war brought its own benefits–so he didn’t have to care–but you can’t fight a war without real objectives. And it must have been clear to everyone what those objectives had to be.

They had to be the same objectives as in the occupied zones: make sure the population knows who is boss and that massive force stands ready to crush any missteps or simply act on whim. For years that had been Netanyahu’s answer to all questions. It had worked to stop blowing up busses. It was the only achievable option for Gaza.

It’s not genocide, but it’s a war against the population. Make sure they never forget what happened to them–and that we can do it again. Absolute hell in every dimension. You don’t even have to try very hard. It’s mostly a byproduct of fighting Hamas and not caring about consequences, although blocking food trucks is a step beyond. It also serves Netanyahu’s other long-term objective–making a two-state solution impossible by hatred.

One hopes against hope there is some way to recover from this mess. That’s another subject. But it’s worth being clear about what is actually going on–and that it’s not new.

About Geopolitics

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As point of departure it’s worth asking a simple question: why after the second world war did the United States emerge as dominant, with the major powers of Europe clearly reduced to playing second fiddle? The answer is straightforward: even after recovery from the war the economic and military power represented by the US dwarfed anything that a single European could marshall. (In that it’s worth recognizing the tight coupling between economic and military power. Also pure population or market size plays a big role.)

So where are we today? If we compare the US to China, we’re close to being superceded as a production powerhouse and we’re certainly well-behind in population and market size (an issue for training of AI systems or for migration to electric cars). Does that mean we’re on the way out?

There are two parts to the answer: 1. The concern is legitimate and 2. There’s an answer to it.

The answer is in how to think about it. Our economic and military unit is the US plus our allies in Europe and Asia, with an overall population and market size comparable to or greater than China’s. Like it or not they are all us. It’s important to recognize this. Our economic and military relationships are not benevolence–they exist to serve us. NATO in particular exists, because after World War II and still today the European allies are our first line of defense against the power of Russia. And it’s not just NATO.

The dimensions of power have changed, so that in the world of today we can’t think just domestically. At the end of the second world war, even enemies like France and Germany recognized that in the new world they had no choice but to learn to get along. We similarly need to go farther in defining bonds of cooperation. In that sense even Brexit is less important than establishing the dimensions of cooperation within the entire alliance.

In today’s world chest-beating xenophobia is suicidal (this recent article has some interesting examples of counter-productive domestic monopolies). High tariff walls translate to non-competitive industries with technology obsolescence and ultimately a lower standard of living and military weakness. Internationalism is necessary and in two distinct pieces. The working relationships with our allies are as important to get right as the working relationships between the states of the US. While those relationships are weaker, they count for market size, technology, and military power. Beyond that, relations are tougher, but there are some areas–peace, climate change, control of nuclear weapons–where it just has to happen. Ignoring those challenges is also suicidal.

Despite the messiness of everyday news we don’t necessarily live in bad or discouraging times. We just need to recognize our strengths and what it takes to leverage them. And the overriding common interest we all have in a single interrelated world.

Math for Anyone Interested

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On a completely different subject ….

Over the last few years I’ve tried to write a short book for motivated high school kids who might be interested in going beyond the basic high school curriculum. The idea was that they already know a lot more than the general public, and it wouldn’t take much to enable them to see and appreciate some famous results.

I gave it a try with four chapters: on cryptography and quantum computing, on the prime number theorem, on Galois theory, and even (most overambitiously) on Fermat’s last theorem. In all cases I tried to provide some substance but avoiding the terminology and abstraction that usually make these subjects inaccessible.

I have some relevant background. I have a degree in mathematics and taught math in college for a few years. I’ve had a technical career, more in software than in math, and I’ve spent quite a bit of time trying to explain technical subjects to non-technical audiences. I’ve also done some high school tutoring, and I’ve worked with my children and grandchildren.

None of that says I’m fully-qualified for what I’ve tried to do. I’m posting this not because I think it’s done, but because I think some people might find it interesting, and something useful might be made of it. And I do think there is value in understanding progress in mathematics even for the age of AI.

So here’s the link for anyone interested.

Summarizing the Gaza War

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After all the bloodshed and polemics it’s easy to forget what has actually happened with the Gaza war.

Prior to October 7 Israel was in a pretty good situation that seemed likely to get better.  They had relations with several Arab countries and the prize of a relationship with Saudi Arabia seemed to be in the offing. Palestinians weren’t the main topic, but they also had something to gain from leverage in the process.

Hamas was desperate to prevent all that.  Any moves toward peace were the enemy of a purified Islamic state in Palestine.  On October 7 they carried out the most horrifying and offensive attack possible, with killing of children in front of their parents (and then killing the parents) as well as rapes and anything else they could think of.  The objective was to provoke an Israeli reaction that would torpedo the looming progress.

The Israeli government was certainly capable of understanding what was going on.   However instead of the obvious reaction—whatever we do we do we’re not going to let Hamas dictate our future—they did exactly the opposite.  Why was that? (Contrary to the usual rhetoric this was not a fight for Israel’s existence.)

Simply put, Israel’s interest and Netanyahu’s interest were not the same.  Netanyahu’s long-standing support of Hamas (as a counterweight to the Palestinian Authority) and his negligence of reported threats were directly responsible for the success of the Hamas attacks.  And despite his denials, all polls indicated that the Israeli population understood that.  So he had a problem. And the only way out was a great big war.

From that point on, the interests of Hamas and Netanyahu once again coincided.  The more civilians killed the better.  For Hamas it made them heroes defending the Arab world against the inhumanity of the Israelis.  For Netanyahu it proved that only he was tough enough to do what it takes.  (And what’s more, the longer the war the better the chance to bring back his buddy Trump who would support the dictatorial takeover of Israel.)

The interests of Israel however have been lost in the shuffle.  Anti-Semitism everywhere is on the rise, with not just relations with the Arab world but even the existence of Israel now active subjects of dispute.  Further the stated military objective—the elimination of Hamas—is nowhere near accomplished.  Despite the massive destruction and loss of life, it is estimated that Hamas has lost approximately 8,000 of its approximately 30,000-man army.  As the tunnels are mostly intact, there is no plan for how to change that.

But this war was never fought for Israel.  For Netanyahu it’s not clear how much he has burnished his reputation, but any challenge to his power has been pushed out to the indefinite future.  And Hamas is riding high.  So whatever horror the rest of the world may feel, we’ve got to call the war a smashing success for its perpetrators.  May they both rot in Hell.

Netanyahu is Like Manchin Only Worse

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It’s worth being clear about the threat that Netanyahu poses–not just to Israel but to the US as well.

The Gaza war is immensely unpopular here. Not only because it is a war beamed to every television set, but also because it is unavoidably devisive. And Biden, by trying to achieve progress toward a two-state solution, has alienated the strong supporters of both sides. It is a truism that we need significant progress toward peace by November.

Enter Netanyahu. There are a number of things he wants from the Gaza war:

  1. To cover up his reponsibility for the October 7 events, as we’ve noted here before. For now, the majority of Israelis are unwilling to forgive him.
  2. To delay any election until his coverup is complete.
  3. To sell himself as the only one tough enough to fight the Palestinians. That has always involved rejecting any two-state solution as inconsistent with the fear campaigns that have kept him in power.
  4. To estsablish himself as dictator of Israel with, in particular, control of the judiciary so as to protect himself from corruption charges.

For these reasons it has always been clear that Netanyahu would keep the Gaza war going as long as possible. That means you have to regard his negotiations with Biden as akin to Manchin’s. He’ll give hints of progress, but when it comes down to action he’s far too dishonest to be believed.

However it’s worse than that. Netanyahu knows he needs Trump as President. If that happens the whole dictatorial takeover gains a new light. Instead of a democratic adversary in the US, he gains a dictator partner ready to support every feature of what he wants to do.

Electing Trump is not the most important item in Netanyahu’s agenda, but it fits perfectly with the rest. And you can count on Netanyahu to make the most of this God-given opportunity to get everything at once. 

Biden has his work cut out for him. Neither side wants peace, and one hopes there is someone watching his back.

What a Trump Election Means

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The most important campaign message has to be a concise picture of what a Trump election will mean to peoples’ lives.  Inability to do this was a great failure of the Clinton campaign.  Even though the signs were clear, people were shocked by what really happened. The big women’s march early in Trump’s term was filled with people who suddenly awakened—too late—to what was going on.  I remember an OpEd piece somewhere on the subject:  “What have you got to lose?—Quite a lot as it turns out.”  We have to get to people this time.

This can’t be complicated if it’s going to be successful, so a maximum of four points for any audience.  For businessmen the priorities may be different than for students.  So for this piece I’m not going to try to cut the list .  Here’s one list of points to consider.

  • Women will lose control of their bodies

We’ve seen what Trump’s Supreme Court has done with abortion.  That’s what Trump did last time and the perpetrators want more:  a federal law outlawing abort in ALL states and strict prohibitions on availability of contraception.

  • Climate change will be become catastrophic. 

We already see accelerating consequences.  Trump will not only block US action but by strengthening the Russian-Saudi opposition he can effectively undermine all progress worldwide.  We only have a limited window to begin taking action.

  • The US will become isolated and weakened internationally

Trump has already said that NATO is dead.  Europe will belong to Putin and a vastly more powerful and emboldened Russia.  The US will be isolated in a hostile world dominated by Russia and China. Allies will be unable to trust any long-term US commitments.

  • Public services of all kinds will be cut

Another big business tax cut will mean public services of all kinds including education will suffer.  Weakening of Social Security, Medicare, and Obamacare with no substitutes.

  • The economy will become even more skewed to the very rich

Trump supports big current businesses, such as his own.  His Supreme Court has ruled for business over workers on every issue.  His tax plan was a huge giveaway to big companies and rich people—the primary effect was stock buybacks not investment or jobs or wages.  Despite the rhetoric he did not bring back manufacturing.

  • The US will face enormous risks at any strategic challenge

Trump faced one strategic problem—Covid—and only play-acted at being a leader.  He did nothing to help keep people alive, even with the promise of a coming vaccine.  That inaction is only one side of the problem.  As many of his associates have noted, he has an all-consuming fixation on not appearing weak.  That combined with impulsiveness and belief in his own genius means there are no limits to what he may be trapped into doing. Trump’s supporters want to believe he gets his way with threats, but threats without action are quickly hollow.

  • Government will be all over peoples’ lives

Trump has said that he will weaponize the Justice Department and even the military to control dissent.  No one should believe they will escape this.  The huge camps he talks about for illegal aliens show what he is willing to do to anyone who gets in his way.  Trump is easily slighted and vengeful.  Once he’s in power he’s no one’s friend.

  • Divisiveness will be worse not better

Trump makes no bones about caring only about “his” people. Even within his own party we’ve seen the most unproductive Congress ever.

  • We will lose democracy and it will matter

People may complain about how much say they have now, but that doesn’t compare with what is planned for Trump part 2.    Once the election is over there will be no further legal means to resist anything.  Dictatorships are bad for everyone—there is no way to fight corruption, protect oneself, or correct big mistakes.