Call to Action

Democrats must challenge Republican lies about inflation. The Republican message is simple: “Inflation is caused by Democrat’s unrestrained spending. Elect us and we’ll stop that and fix it.” Both parts of that message are lies.

Inflation is everywhere in the world and we’re generally on the good side of average. That last Covid payment is not what turned the world upside down. We’re still fighting the product and labor bottlenecks that persist. Republicans haven’t proposed one single bit of a plan.

Furthermore, as several authors have pointed out, Republicans are anything but a safe choice. We’re not talking about the old conservative Republicans. These are Trump’s burn down the house people. With the debt ceiling blackmail, Republicans are going after Medicare and Social Security with a threat of liquidity collapse if they don’t get it. We’re going to outdo the British Conservatives with Liz Truss!

Finally it needs to be recognized that the Republican argument on inflation is just a rehashing of the usual Republican program of presents to the rich. Inflation is the lastest bogeyman to say we can’t have public services or anything else that rich people don’t want to pay for.

A Message for Democrats Now

It has become clear from all polls that the key issue for voters in this midterm election is inflation.  That’s a difficult issue for Democrats, so we have tried to make it something else:  January 6, the Supreme Court, etc.  The time has come to realize that all of that has failed.  That’s particularly scary, because all of the crazy people we helped nominate in Republican primaries now stand a good chance of being elected—because voters view Republicans as better for the economy, regardless of how crazy a particular candidate may be.

So there is no substitute for taking on inflation as an issue.  It’s not as if we have no answer for this, but the time to act is now.  Please, please contribute to this.  For what it’s worth l give a few points here.

  • Current inflation is not something created by the last stimulus checks. 

Inflation is a worldwide phenomenon, and we are actually at the low end in the Western World.  It is the worst in 40 years, because we haven’t had anything like Covid for many decades.  Even today we have many categories of manpower shortages (e.g. women who can’t work because daycare centers were closed by Covid) and product shortages (e.g. in electronics) as well as changes in demand patterns (e.g. in real estate).  Energy prices are being manipulated as we resist Russian aggression in Ukraine.  We have been working to deal with all of this.  There is no simple case where none of it would have happened.   Further, since Republicans are pretending they can blame everything on Democrats’ spending, they have no plans to make any of it better.

  •  There isn’t any inflationary profligate spending in the rest of the Democrats’ program

Republicans are rushing to take responsibility for results of the infrastructure bill—even in many cases where they voted against it.  Most of the population recognizes that the climate measures are absolutely necessary.  For student loan debt, many people seem to have been confused by the $400 B figure attached to the program.   In fact this is an accounting issue, where the number is spread over decades, without any significant near-term or per year effect.   It should also be noted that college tuition costs essentially doubled starting in 2008, so there is an issue to be addressed.

  • The current Trump Republicans are not the fiscally conservative, reliable Republicans of old.  They are ready and willing to sacrifice all of us to the wild idea of the day. 

The now-serious debt ceiling blackmail is a case in point.  Republicans are ready to throw caution to the winds—in a very precarious world economy.  Massive cuts in Medicare and Social Security would be on the block in such an effort.  And forcing a US default in today’s world would create a liquidity crisis to make the Liz Truss affair look like nothing at all.  Trump Republicans are also ready to tank the economy if they think that will help elect their hero in 2024.

One British observer described similarities across the Atlantic: “Like the Republicans in the United States, the Conservatives are detached from reality. In a generation, they have become a party of monomaniacs, incompetents and ideologues.” We shouldn’t be laughing about Liz Truss here.

The Depression of the 2020’s

We’re not paying enough attention.  This midterm election hides a real danger of Depression.  We’re stumbling into exactly what happened in the 1930’s.

The Great Depression of the 1930’s occurred when the financial authorities of the day responded to a sudden downturn with the opposite of what was needed.  A straightjacket of fiscal austerity was applied (by the self-protecting upper classes) in place of the stimulation that would have enabled recovery.   That shut down everything in the US and much of the western world.

We are currently fighting inflation.  That’s a tough battle and will cause a slowdown that is some variety of recession.  It’s what happens next that matters. 

The only reason we got out of the 2008 recession was that there were enough Republicans to join Democrats in passing a stimulus package early on.  Already by 2010 there were few of those Republicans left, and any further stimulus was blocked in the name of the bogus “balanced budget amendment”.  The goal was national pain ahead of the 2016 election.  It worked.

We’re in that situation again, but the dangers are much worse.   To state the obvious, the worldwide economy is in extremely fragile state:  inflation is everywhere (we’re actually on the low side), there is war in Ukraine (with direct consequences for many countries), energy prices are rising from Saudi greed, there’s even a dictatorship-induced slowdown in China, and (compared with 2008) there is very little international cooperation.  Forced austerity is exactly what brought the world economy down last time, and we’re going to get it again.

For today’s Republican Party a recession is an opportunity.  A Republican (Trump) Congress will do anything to bring back their hero.  As in 2014 there will be no possibility of stimulus no matter how bad things get, because pain is the goal.  By 2024 it will be too late for any short-term way out. 

The Great Depression was so bad, that it seemed that people would always remember what happened and never do that again.  Unfortunately we’re there.

Some Reality for the Midterms

I’m tired of arguments over whether Republicans or Democrats are better managers of the economy.  The situation for the midterms is starker than that. 

In this election cycle we are parallel to 2014, a mid-term election with an open Presidential election to follow.  What did the Republican Party do with their power between 2014 and 2016?  They shut down government with the “balanced budget amendment” nonsense (forgotten immediately under Trump) in order to cause national pain for the 2016 election.  That is no exaggeration—it was deliberate policy.  The student loan crisis and the pain in “flyover” districts were direct results.

In 2022 we are at an economically delicate moment—trying to control inflation without a serious downturn.  A Republican Congress will do exactly what they did last time—shut down government (this time in the name of inflation) to make sure things get worse for 2024.  Given the risks of the moment, the consequences can be dire. 

We can either elect a Congress interested in avoiding the worst, or we can elect a Congress dedicated to provoking a recession and making sure it lasts. 

Propagandists for Power

This note is occasioned by John McWhorter’s piece in the NY Times, basically praising Clarence Thomas as a thinker who has been too easily dismissed.

While I agree with Mr. McWhorter on some subjects, I think he is very wrong on this one.  And his mistake is the same one made by other people about other public figures.

First about Clarence Thomas:

  • He is someone who has received help every step of his career, but who has nonetheless declared himself self-made.  His autobiography is emphatic to the point of absurdity on the subject. 
  • His general philosophy is heavily influenced by that mythology.  Like many other pseudo-self-made people (there are admittedly more rich than poor of them), he asserts “I did it, so can anyone else who has what it takes.”  No one should be asking government for help.  That he sincerely believes this does not make it either true or admirable.
  • Despite his self-delusions, he has not achieved his success as a thinker.  He has achieved success as a propagandist for power.  His ideas, however well or badly thought-out, are irrelevant to his current position.  He is a tool in the Koch organization’s (and Republican party’s) battle plan.  The position being propagated is simple and convenient:  we just don’t have to care.
  • Contrary to what you sometimes read in the papers, he has not driven the Supreme Court to its current position on the extreme right.  That is a Koch-managed and funded enterprise that has put a succession of Federalist Society judges on the Court.

We should now talk more generally.  There were places and times in the past when people seemed at least worried about selling out.  That is, whether they were putting personal advantage above some notion of morality.

We are no longer at that place or time.  In the United States (and elsewhere) today, there is no morality stronger than financial success.  People don’t need to agonize anymore, because riches are proof of morality.  That’s the Clarence Thomas problem, and he is far from the only example.

I’d even put Milton Friedman in that category (along with a good chunk of the Federalist Society).  Milton Friedman was certainly capable of understanding the logical flaw in his argument:  it’s okay to declare that corporations serve their stockholders—but only if someone else is minding the store.  If those same corporations are also running government, then no one is minding the store.  Instead he made himself a wealthy and respected genius, again as a propagandist for power.

No one should be venerating propagandists for power, no matter how sincere such people believe themselves to be.

Democracy’s Enemies are No One’s Friends

Today about half the United States electorate seems to think that the end of democracy would be great—they could just keep on winning.  It’s not said enough: that’s a fallacy regardless of where you sit on the political spectrum.  The end of democracy means the end of leverage.

As history has proved over and over again, the winners when democracy dies are the real elites who hold power.  In this case were talking about the Kochs, the Thiels, the Mercers, the Murdochs.  In the absence of democracy, no functioning elections means no power for anyone else.  All other leverage is gone.

Those people have been very clear about what that means.  What they want is what’s good for them.  No taxes on rich people and corporations.  No regulation.  No government services they don’t need—that is no social security, no Medicare, two-tier education, nothing for climate, no safety net.   Back to the glory days of the nineteenth century, when businesses could get away with anything.

For now a section of the population finds common cause with those people on guns and abortion, but those were never the main issues.   The only reason we’re talking about those issues today is that we do have a democracy today and voting matters.  Guns and abortion are a path to power, but not a commitment to support anyone in any way.

Once democracy goes, we’ll have nothing to say.  And nothing is what everyone—both their supporters and their opponents—is going to get.

We’re Doing Climate—Next the Court

Schumer and Manchin seem finally to have reached agreement on meaningful climate action. If we can do that, the next step has got to be reforming the Supreme Court.

This Court is responsible for even more than it gets blamed for.  Roe v Wade is the tip of the iceberg.  This court is dedicated to the project of overturning democracy by enforcing and maintaining minority rule.

That starts with the defense of gerrymandering.  This is the single most important factor in the polarization of the political environment—a political minority is given vastly exaggerated and untouchable power.  Punting to Congress is a joke, since that asks the beneficiaries to give up power. To that gets added Citizens United and the provocatively-announced ruling on “replacement electors.”

As both Alito and Thomas have made clear, this court has decided to use its unchallenged power to rule—and the proper response of the population should be obedience. Democracy has no place is this vision.

Changing the Court’s size is a matter that requires majorities in both houses of Congress and the President.  Democrats have that.  Taking that action is not radical.   What is radical is a rogue Supreme Court that is using it’s unchallengable powers to rule—certainly not the intention of the founding fathers.  It should of course be noted who is actually rulling—the Koch organization that created and managed the  Federlist Society, to which all conservative justices have dedicated their careers.

This is a chance to save democracy in this country.  Second only to saving the planet.

The Mid-Terms are It

There’s nothing particularly novel about this conclusion, but it still needs to be said over and over again. There is only one objective now: the midterm elections. With the current activist Supreme Court there’s no telling how much damage will be done in two years or what elections will look like in 2024.

This Supreme Court has asserted it’s right to impose a belligerent, unpopular theocracy. And that’s just the beginning. The conservative justices all come from the Koch organization’s Federalist Society, whose end goal is business control of government and elimination of all regulation and social services. That may sound far-fetched, but so did the complete elimination of Roe v Wade.

The Court has pointedly said it would review state plans for “alternative electors.” That would potentially allow gerrymandered legislatures to override electoral results. Such proposals are crafted to give all electoral power to those gerrymandered legislatures–even governors (some are Democrats) have no say. This Court is controlled by Republicans in the mold of Mitch McConnell. They have no qualms about doing what’s best for them, and they can hide (as usual) behind calling it states’ rights. With enough states tied up in this way, it may well become impossible to elect anyone but a Koch-approved President.

The Supreme Court has to be reformed before it completes its takeover of the country. That requires workable majorities in both the House and Senate, which sounds like a heroic task. However the point is not that it’s easy; the point is that there is an actual path to saving the country from the Koch coup. There are enough seats up for grabs in the Senate. Retaining the House will be harder.

For the House people have just got to realize what’s at stake. Roe v Wade is bad enough as it is, but it’s also a sign of what’s coming. No labor protections, no help for the environment, no government role for healthcare or Social Security. The USA as Brazil, with all but a few of us living in the slums of Rio and ready to be undone by climate change.

We have an opportunity to preserve our country before it’s turned into something unrecognizeable. And that’s not just for Democrats. This is a new bout of Prohibition with religious vigilantes telling everyone how to live their lives. And the powers pushing hardest for gun rights really want those guns in the hands of private Pinkerton militias, just like in the good old days of the nineteenth century. The Koch people are nobody’s friends.

This year is it. Forget everything else. It’s amazing we have a chance.