Message for Business

We’ve spoken here before about how the evangelical community needs to understand that Trump is not their guy.

However the issue is more general.  It’s too easy to dismiss evangelicals as disconnected from reality and perhaps swayed by self-interested leaders. In fact all of us have spent lifetimes insulated from the reality of authoritarian government.  The US elections and democratic system are certainly not perfect, but we the people still do have power.  It’s hard to recognize that once that goes, the world is different.

Even the well-heeled and well-educated business community has that problem.  Much was made of Jamie Dimon’s comment at Davos that Europeans in particular should stop worrying about Trump, because ultimately nothing serious was going to happen.  A recent Edsall piece pointed out that many other business leaders believe the same thing.  Like the Evangelical’s focus on abortion, the business focus on the Trump tax cuts has convinced business people that he’s their guy.

As Edsall’s article points out, the history of authoritarian takeovers tells another story.  Once government is unaccountable, what follows is massive corruption and shakedowns of all players.  That’s in addition to the whims and the uncorrectable mistakes of the leader.  Businesses–and in particular their leaders–have much to lose, as their counterparts elsewhere have found out to their shock and surprise.

For now Trump’s threats–combined with the taxcut carrot–seem to hold sway with much of the business community.   But the Trump people have made no secret of their plan to end democracy in favor of an  Viktor Orban-like regime.  As a threat, there is nothing in Biden’s program that comes close to matching that one.

What a Trump Election Means

The most important campaign message has to be a concise picture of what a Trump election will mean to peoples’ lives.  Inability to do this was a great failure of the Clinton campaign.  Even though the signs were clear, people were shocked by what really happened. The big women’s march early in Trump’s term was filled with people who suddenly awakened—too late—to what was going on.  I remember an OpEd piece somewhere on the subject:  “What have you got to lose?—Quite a lot as it turns out.”  We have to get to people this time.

This can’t be complicated if it’s going to be successful, so a maximum of four points for any audience.  For businessmen the priorities may be different than for students.  So for this piece I’m not going to try to cut the list .  Here’s one list of points to consider.

  • Women will lose control of their bodies

We’ve seen what Trump’s Supreme Court has done with abortion.  That’s what Trump did last time and the perpetrators want more:  a federal law outlawing abort in ALL states and strict prohibitions on availability of contraception.

  • Climate change will be become catastrophic. 

We already see accelerating consequences.  Trump will not only block US action but by strengthening the Russian-Saudi opposition he can effectively undermine all progress worldwide.  We only have a limited window to begin taking action.

  • The US will become isolated and weakened internationally

Trump has already said that NATO is dead.  Europe will belong to Putin and a vastly more powerful and emboldened Russia.  The US will be isolated in a hostile world dominated by Russia and China. Allies will be unable to trust any long-term US commitments.

  • Public services of all kinds will be cut

Another big business tax cut will mean public services of all kinds including education will suffer.  Weakening of Social Security, Medicare, and Obamacare with no substitutes.

  • The economy will become even more skewed to the very rich

Trump supports big current businesses, such as his own.  His Supreme Court has ruled for business over workers on every issue.  His tax plan was a huge giveaway to big companies and rich people—the primary effect was stock buybacks not investment or jobs or wages.  Despite the rhetoric he did not bring back manufacturing.

  • The US will face enormous risks at any strategic challenge

Trump faced one strategic problem—Covid—and only play-acted at being a leader.  He did nothing to help keep people alive, even with the promise of a coming vaccine.  That inaction is only one side of the problem.  As many of his associates have noted, he has an all-consuming fixation on not appearing weak.  That combined with impulsiveness and belief in his own genius means there are no limits to what he may be trapped into doing. Trump’s supporters want to believe he gets his way with threats, but threats without action are quickly hollow.

  • Government will be all over peoples’ lives

Trump has said that he will weaponize the Justice Department and even the military to control dissent.  No one should believe they will escape this.  The huge camps he talks about for illegal aliens show what he is willing to do to anyone who gets in his way.  Trump is easily slighted and vengeful.  Once he’s in power he’s no one’s friend.

  • Divisiveness will be worse not better

Trump makes no bones about caring only about “his” people. Even within his own party we’ve seen the most unproductive Congress ever.

  • We will lose democracy and it will matter

People may complain about how much say they have now, but that doesn’t compare with what is planned for Trump part 2.    Once the election is over there will be no further legal means to resist anything.  Dictatorships are bad for everyone—there is no way to fight corruption, protect oneself, or correct big mistakes. 

Don’t Let Our So-Called Press Off the Hook

With all the disucssion around the Palestinian hospital disaster we’re in danger of losing track of one of worst examples of institutional misbehavior that I have ever seen.

The media were active participants in the Hamas propaganda campaign, because this was such a juicy story they just couldn’t resist.  Nobody in his right mind could have regarded Hamas as a reliable source.  Nonetheless the US news media, including CNN and the NY Times, reported that Israel bombed the hospial, thereby helping create a huge international incident that disrupted—possibly indefintely–many efforts toward peace in the area.  That of course was Hamas’ goal from the beginning. 

At this point the odds are pretty good that the Israeli story is correct.  What that means is that Hamas lied and got away with it because they knew the story first.  That’s all it took to get what they wanted. Hamas and its allies were responsible for the death and destruction as well as the false story that was carried far and wide.  That should be hateful for anyone anywhere is the world including the Arab countries.  The fact that the world is instead in uproar is a consequence the horrendous behavior of the news media.

What happened at the hospital was terrible.  The bald statement in the press that Israel did it–in the absence of any reliable source–was an unforgiveable assault on efforts for peace worldwide. It didn’t have to happen. They just couldn’t bother to think about it.

Necessary information that just can’t get told

Here are two examples of important information that our so-called press just can’t manage to talk about:

  1. Despite all of the coverage everywhere of the Hamas attacks and Israel’s response, NO ONE is pointing out that George W. Bush is 100% responsible for this situation. He forced the election that put Hamas in power when every other major player said that elections at that chaotic moment were a bad idea. As with the Iraq war, Bush went straight ahead, talking about the miracles of democracy but with no real understanding of what he was doing.
  2. There was good article in the Washington Post pointing out the responsibility of the Supreme Court for the Republican chaos that has shut down Congress. It’s true–gerrymandering and removal of limits on campaign contributions have undermined democracy. However they didn’t take the next step and point out who gave us this Court and why. The Koch people and their allies have worked on this for years with their Federalist Society (among many other things). They WANT weak government, so they can run things for their own benefit and no one else’s.

On the Hamas Attacks

The best article I’ve seen on the Hamas attacks is this one.  As he points out, the main trigger for it was the possibility of a Saudi-Israeli agreement.  Nothing says that such an agreement would be great for the Palestinians, but it would certainly provide them some leverage, and there’s nothing Hamas hates more than peace.  There is no question that the primary victims will be Palestinians.

They are being sacrificed in the hope that an Israeli counterreaction will poison the atmosphere for any such agreement.  The sentiments are even stronger for their allies the Iranians, who will certainly fight any Saudi-Israeli engagement down to the very last Palestinian.

It should also be pointed out that one way or another the surprise of this attack comes down to the chaos created by the current Israeli government.  Their expressed view of the Palestinians is easy to summarize: “Palestinians have lost.  Nobody else cares about them so why should we?”  That arrogance made Israel vulnerable to attack, and a good chunk of the Israeli army was too busy with the consequences of the west bank takeovers to think much about Gaza. 

In their eagerness to destroy democracy they have found out that one of the primary weaknesses of dictatorships is overconfident blindness.

Republicans and Guns

With all the conversations about guns in this country, it’s worth being clear that the Republican Party is, was, and will ever be the party of guns. 

As we’ve noted before, the big donors to the party don’t care about guns—they care about money.   But guns are important as a means to that end.  Guns elect Republicans, and Republicans deliver tax cuts and relief from regulation.  All of that money has certainly pumped up guns as an identity issue.

However guns are not just one issue among many being promoted.  Guns are central to the whole Republican project.

Going back to Nixon’s “southern strategy” and before, Republicans are all about fear.  They have institutionalized and spread the long-term Southern terror of black insurrection.  There’s a big dangerous black man (or an immigrant) behind every tree, and he’s out to get you and your family.  Blacks control the Democratic Party, so it’s complicit.   Democrats want to take aware your guns and leave you exposed and unprotected.  Joe Biden refuses to help.  You’ve got to take matters into your own hands.  Republicans are the only thing between you and chaos.

As always in this election campaign the big issue is crime.  This isn’t about statistics or really addressing crime in any organized way.  It’s all about that big dangerous black man you have to be ready to shoot.  This isn’t a matter of convincing individual politicians–Republicans can never give up on guns.

The only option is to defeat them.

Civics

There was a perfectly reasonable article today in Foreign Affairs: “Afghanistan’s Corruption Was Made in America”.  Reasonable except for the surprise at what happened.  Afghanistan was a case of colonial corruption—whether we want to call it that or not—and the mechanisms of colonial corruption have been well-documented.  The classic work on the subject, which got just about everything right, was written in 1860.  The only problem is that for all the intervening years many societies, including ours, have tried hard to avoid learning.

That blind spot brings up the subject of Civics—what is it that we all ought to know? That’s despite the fact that it’s hard to say the word Civics without wincing. My high school Civics course was a giddy paen to American democracy and its perfections.  One sentence sticks in my mind:  “Propaganda is a neutral term despite its unfavorable connotation; what makes it good or bad is what is propagated.”  Take that for wisdom.

But it strikes me that we can point to a few things that belong in a real Civics course.  I’m going to give three titles.  I’ll start with Max Havelaar (the just-mentioned 1860 classic) for international relations, to disabuse people of the notion that we can be white knights to go fix the rest of the world.  This is not a plea for isolationism, but for recognition that our interests will dominate and corruption will likely follow.  At the very least we should be suspicious about our motives and about the reality of what we create.

A second title is Jane Mayer’s Dark Money.  This book has been around since 2016 and has had nowhere near the impact it should have.  It documents the very successful effort of the Koch organization to take over the political system in United States and reorient it to their objectives.  It explains most of what passes for incomprehensible in the press today—why the country has become ungovernable, why democracy is at risk, and how we got saddled with a mind-boggling Supreme Court. All of that was the plan from the beginning, and unless we’re clear on what happened, we’re not likely to be able to change it.

A third title is Heather McGhee’s book The Sum of Us. This book has some issues from trying to satisfy multiple constituencies, but its main message is clear: the different racial and other groups in this country have been turned against each other in a deliberate campaign of divide and conquer. And the only way to counter that is to recognize common interest and act for the common good. This was deliberate policy for Martin Luther King among others, but it’s not easy to do–group militancy will always fight it. However there is no alternative in taking on the powerful forces described in Dark Money.

Those books alone could give a big dose of reality to our political process. We can contrast that with what passes for Civics in public discourse today.

Most of what we hear about Civics today comes from the far right, where it’s back to the future–the contemporary version of what I had all those years ago with the John Birch Society. In the interim it hasn’t gotten better: this is still God’s country, above criticism and chosen to rule in His name. One particular feature worth noting is the weakness of the support for democracy. Democracy is defined as whatever it is that we’re doing, and it’s good because it’s ours.

On the left the world view is different, but fragmented. One person who does talk about Civics is the strange and (I find) worrisome figure of Danielle Allen.  Ms. Allen presents herself as standing above the messy political discussions of the day and as a pure advocate for civic virtue.  But her Civics lives in a world where there are no bad actors, and the primary issue is alienation of voters from the political system. In that world, the monumental importance of the 2024 election is hidden behind tales of civic involvement that ignore the real forces at work. In the end she’s cover for the people who have put us where we are.

For today, the kind of Civics outlined here doesn’t exist. But it’s worth recognizing that a real, substanitive Civics course is not so hard to describe. Maybe someday it could happen.

The Debt Limit fight is a Coup

We’ve been hearing about the debt limit for months, but familiarity makes it sound sort of normal.  That is spectacularly wrong.

We all know it would be a disaster for this country to foreclose on its debt.  That would not only have massive economic impact, beyond that it would undermine international confidence in the United States for any of its commitments.  That the Republican Party is playing chicken with those consequences shows just how divorced it is from the well-being of the country.  What’s not to like about a forced recession in a Democratic President’s election year??

However even that doesn’t do justice to what is going on.  The issues under discussion are not merely financial.  McCarthy is going after specific parts of the Biden legislative agenda with his own alternatives.  The debt limit fight is an effort to replace our Constitutional form of government with a new Republican agenda forced upon the country at gun point.  That is not an exaggeration.

The Debt Limit fight is a coup.