We should be explicit about the path we’re on.  We are engaged in a winner-takes-all fight for AI supremacy.  The operative assumption is that whoever wins will rule the world, because that country will control a version of AI so powerful that it can improve itself to be invincible.  Whoever wins will liquidate all opposition, so there can be no challenge to its power.  That’s the story, true or not. We’ve got to win.

There are many consequences to this.  To start with, no effective regulation of AI is possible, because it is impossible to say what constraints on AI development would get in the way of the fight to the death.  In particular some of the most obviously risky issues—such as autonomous military decision making—are the most untouchable. This the worst kind of arms race, where it’s not just a matter of parity.  Only victory is good enough. There are no effective limits to the amount of money it can take.

But even that is just the beginning.  Once you’re in a fight-to-the-death, any form of international cooperation becomes extraneous.  You can’t think too seriously about common interests when everyone is a mortal enemy.  That mindset is all too easy in any case, since common interests are always a hard sell (even for climate change). So we fall back on the world view we now get everyday—whoever has power deserves what he can get. With the Iran war we’ve gone a step farther, asserting that (with the closing of the Strait of Hormuz) we have absolute freedom to inflict damage on the rest of the world whenever we perceive gain for ourselves.

That this view is acceptable without much pushback is a matter of ultimate hubris.  It’s all okay, because we’re going to win.  In fact we’re not actually much interested in how international competition works or what it will really take to win.  We’ve been on top for so long that we’re entitled.  God will make us win.  That’s not an exaggeration of where we are. 

There’s a lot that we don’t know about the end to this story.  The future is never clear.  But there is one thing that is definitely true—we’re stumbling our way into real danger.  The risks are everywhere. For technology we’re certainly not necessarily on top—even today China is a serious competitor—and we’re burning bridges to the future by killing research investments and attacking all foreigners as parasites. Even for AI we’re a long way from the finish line, and it’s unclear whose paths will get there first. More generally we’re in a wildly unstable arms race with many new technologies, proliferating nuclear weapons, and no good way even to know who is ahead. Yet we’re using war as if it’s a regular element of national policy.

The only workable way to forestall conflict is viable common interest.  You don’t have war or countries laid waste if all parties recognize there’s a lot to lose.  (You can still have homicidal maniacs, but shared prosperity helps keep them out.)  The world needs order, starting with recognition that interdependence, economic and otherwise, is not going away.   So we had better fix it.  Start with economic issues—trade, climate change, AI—and then do something about war.  A fight to the death ends with just that, and who knows how many—both here and abroad—could pay.