Gaza war

Wake Up People

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I’m writing today about three unrelated items that come together as commentary on our time.

The first is a video of J D Vance answering questions on Meet the Press. Without any hedging or apologies he is arguing for a full political takeover of universities.  We need Viktor Orban’s state censorship here? How have we reached the stage where a mainstream party is proposing totalitarian behavior as a model?

Second, I just finished one of the most disturbing novels I’ve ever read.   On the face of it, it’s a story about high school, where there reader only gradually learns what has happened as told by ten different speakers.  What’s horrifying is that something terrible happens without anyone owning up–even to themselves—about what was really going on.  The horror didn’t just happen; it was allowed to happen.  I don’t know if the author thought of it as a metaphor, but it sure feels like where we are.

Finally, like everyone else I’m confronted by the Gaza mess everyday.  It’s only pushing things a little to say that Netanyahu seems to have decided that if he’s going down, he’s going to take Israel with him.  Israel gave dictatorial power to a narcissist who promised security—and he ran Israel for HIMSELF.  If there was ever a cautionary tale this is it. 

Can’t we wake up?

Student Protesters are Sacrificing Palestinians

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As noted here before Netanyahu and Hamas are long-term allies and conscious co-authors of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.  Supporting either is supporting the common effort to kill Palestinians.  In the near-term the student protests reduce incentives for Hamas to agree to a cease fire, and they undermine Biden’s pressure on Netanyahu over Rafa.

Further, whether consciously or not, the student protests are also directly supporting the Republican attacks on universities.  Just as with the no-win grilling of university presidents, the goal is to discredit any institution that opposes today’s anti-democratic right-wing dogmas.  Chaos on campus is a great tool to further that aim and help elect Trump.  Anyone who thinks another Trump Presidency will be good for Palestinians (or Israelis for that matter) is out of his mind.

Before joining such a movement you need to think twice about what it really is.  The goals are not humanitarian.  Organizers and leaders of these movements have many different objectives—both personal and political—but the plight of Palestinian civilians in Gaza is nothing more than a recruitment slogan.  And it is used against the lives of Palestinians with the crassest dishonesty imaginable.

Summarizing the Gaza War

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After all the bloodshed and polemics it’s easy to forget what has actually happened with the Gaza war.

Prior to October 7 Israel was in a pretty good situation that seemed likely to get better.  They had relations with several Arab countries and the prize of a relationship with Saudi Arabia seemed to be in the offing. Palestinians weren’t the main topic, but they also had something to gain from leverage in the process.

Hamas was desperate to prevent all that.  Any moves toward peace were the enemy of a purified Islamic state in Palestine.  On October 7 they carried out the most horrifying and offensive attack possible, with killing of children in front of their parents (and then killing the parents) as well as rapes and anything else they could think of.  The objective was to provoke an Israeli reaction that would torpedo the looming progress.

The Israeli government was certainly capable of understanding what was going on.   However instead of the obvious reaction—whatever we do we do we’re not going to let Hamas dictate our future—they did exactly the opposite.  Why was that? (Contrary to the usual rhetoric this was not a fight for Israel’s existence.)

Simply put, Israel’s interest and Netanyahu’s interest were not the same.  Netanyahu’s long-standing support of Hamas (as a counterweight to the Palestinian Authority) and his negligence of reported threats were directly responsible for the success of the Hamas attacks.  And despite his denials, all polls indicated that the Israeli population understood that.  So he had a problem. And the only way out was a great big war.

From that point on, the interests of Hamas and Netanyahu once again coincided.  The more civilians killed the better.  For Hamas it made them heroes defending the Arab world against the inhumanity of the Israelis.  For Netanyahu it proved that only he was tough enough to do what it takes.  (And what’s more, the longer the war the better the chance to bring back his buddy Trump who would support the dictatorial takeover of Israel.)

The interests of Israel however have been lost in the shuffle.  Anti-Semitism everywhere is on the rise, with not just relations with the Arab world but even the existence of Israel now active subjects of dispute.  Further the stated military objective—the elimination of Hamas—is nowhere near accomplished.  Despite the massive destruction and loss of life, it is estimated that Hamas has lost approximately 8,000 of its approximately 30,000-man army.  As the tunnels are mostly intact, there is no plan for how to change that.

But this war was never fought for Israel.  For Netanyahu it’s not clear how much he has burnished his reputation, but any challenge to his power has been pushed out to the indefinite future.  And Hamas is riding high.  So whatever horror the rest of the world may feel, we’ve got to call the war a smashing success for its perpetrators.  May they both rot in Hell.

Netanyahu is Like Manchin Only Worse

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It’s worth being clear about the threat that Netanyahu poses–not just to Israel but to the US as well.

The Gaza war is immensely unpopular here. Not only because it is a war beamed to every television set, but also because it is unavoidably devisive. And Biden, by trying to achieve progress toward a two-state solution, has alienated the strong supporters of both sides. It is a truism that we need significant progress toward peace by November.

Enter Netanyahu. There are a number of things he wants from the Gaza war:

  1. To cover up his reponsibility for the October 7 events, as we’ve noted here before. For now, the majority of Israelis are unwilling to forgive him.
  2. To delay any election until his coverup is complete.
  3. To sell himself as the only one tough enough to fight the Palestinians. That has always involved rejecting any two-state solution as inconsistent with the fear campaigns that have kept him in power.
  4. To estsablish himself as dictator of Israel with, in particular, control of the judiciary so as to protect himself from corruption charges.

For these reasons it has always been clear that Netanyahu would keep the Gaza war going as long as possible. That means you have to regard his negotiations with Biden as akin to Manchin’s. He’ll give hints of progress, but when it comes down to action he’s far too dishonest to be believed.

However it’s worse than that. Netanyahu knows he needs Trump as President. If that happens the whole dictatorial takeover gains a new light. Instead of a democratic adversary in the US, he gains a dictator partner ready to support every feature of what he wants to do.

Electing Trump is not the most important item in Netanyahu’s agenda, but it fits perfectly with the rest. And you can count on Netanyahu to make the most of this God-given opportunity to get everything at once. 

Biden has his work cut out for him. Neither side wants peace, and one hopes there is someone watching his back.